Market Predictions for 2026
As we approach the start of 2026, I want to wish you and your family a happy and healthy New Year. Each year, I continue a tradition I genuinely enjoy: making investment market predictions for the year ahead and reviewing how my prior year’s forecasts turned out. It’s part education, part fun, and a helpful exercise in understanding market behavior.
In this post, I’ll briefly review how my 2025 market predictions performed and then share my Top 6 Market Predictions for 2026.
If you’d like to hear my full set of predictions from last year, you can listen to Episode 235 of the podcast at retirewithryan.com/podcast/235.
A Quick Note on Retirement Planning
The beginning of the year is often a time for reflection and goal-setting. If one of your goals for 2026 is to build a clearer retirement plan, I invite you to check out my online course, Retirement Readiness Review: On Demand.
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As a thank-you to podcast listeners and readers, the course is available for $99 through the end of January (regularly $297).
To enroll, visit retirewithryan.com, click Courses, then Retirement Readiness On Demand, and use the promo code RETIRE99.
How My 2025 Predictions Turned Out
Note: I recorded this review on December 18, so while the year wasn’t technically complete, late-December market movement is typically minimal.
1. S&P 500 Performance
Prediction: +10% return
Result: ✔️ Win
The S&P 500 finished another remarkable year, up approximately 16%, with the potential to approach 20% by year-end—closing near 7,000 for the first time ever.
This followed a 25% return in 2023 and a 23% return in 2024, marking three exceptional years in a row. Despite a sharp decline in April—when the market was down nearly 18% year-to-date due to tariff concerns—the rebound was historic. My estimate was conservative, but since returns exceeded expectations, I’ll take the win.
2. Growth vs. Value Stocks
Prediction: Value outperforms growth
Result: ❌ Loss
Historically, value stocks have outperformed growth stocks by about 4% annually since 1927. However, over the past 14 years, growth has led in 10 of those years.
In 2025, growth stocks narrowly outperformed value once again, continuing a long-standing trend. This one was close—but close doesn’t count.
3. Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap Stocks
Prediction: Small caps outperform
Result: ❌ Loss
Large-cap stocks (S&P 500) continued their dominance in 2025, gaining around 16%, while small-cap stocks (Russell 2000) gained roughly 13%.
Small caps have performed well, but large caps have now outperformed for five consecutive years.
4. Bitcoin vs. Gold
Prediction: Gold will outperform
Result: ✔️ Win
Prediction (for 2026): Bitcoin will outperform gold
In 2025, Bitcoin struggled and was down approximately 5.6%, while gold delivered its best year since the 1970s, rising roughly 63%. That said, Bitcoin advocates view this as a temporary pause following extreme volatility in recent years.
This prediction applies to 2026, not 2025—and I believe Bitcoin rebounds next year.
Click here to listen to this week’s episode on: The Most Asked Financial Questions in 2025
5. U.S. vs. International Stocks
Prediction: U.S. stocks outperform
Result: ❌ Loss
International stocks had their best year in over 15 years, rising approximately 30%, while U.S. stocks gained about 16%.
For the first time in quite a while, international stocks meaningfully outperformed U.S. equities.
6. Interest Rates
Prediction: Three rate cuts, ending at 3.75%–3.50%
Result: ✔️ Win
The Federal Reserve delivered three quarter-point rate cuts, beginning later than expected in September due to persistent inflation. While the timing surprised many, the outcome matched my forecast almost exactly.
Final 2025 Scorecard
3 out of 6 predictions correct — a .500 batting average. Not my best year, but still a valuable learning exercise.
My Top 6 Market Predictions for 2026
Now, let’s look ahead.
1. S&P 500
Prediction: +8.5% return, ending near 7,600
I don’t expect 2026 to be an easy year, but I do believe it will be a positive one. This has been one of the most disliked bull markets in history, with many investors missing out after exiting during COVID or the April 2025 pullback.
Markets tend to climb a “wall of worry,” and next year’s concerns may include:
Tariffs
Political uncertainty
A potential change in Federal Reserve leadership
Despite likely volatility—particularly in the first half of the year—I remain optimistic.
2. Growth vs. Value
Prediction: Value outperforms growth
After years of underperformance, value stocks may finally regain leadership, creating opportunity within diversified portfolios.
3. Large-Cap vs. Small-Cap
Prediction: Small caps outperform
Small-cap stocks are overdue for a strong year. With potential regulatory relief and a heavy concentration in banking and financial services, I see favorable conditions developing in 2026.
4. Bitcoin vs. Gold
Prediction: Bitcoin outperforms gold
Gold is coming off an exceptional run, which may lead to profit-taking. I expect Bitcoin to regain momentum and outperform gold in 2026.
5. U.S. vs. International Stocks
Prediction: U.S. stocks outperform
While international stocks shined in 2025, I continue to believe the U.S. offers superior long-term growth, innovation, and resilience—especially if tariffs remain and interest rates trend lower.
6. Interest Rates
Prediction: Two rate cuts, ending at 3.25%–3.00%
I expect inflation to continue easing, with the Federal Reserve remaining slightly behind the curve. A potential change in Fed leadership could also result in a more dovish approach to rate policy.
Final Thoughts: Stay the Course
These predictions are educated guesses—not guarantees. That’s why I consistently emphasize diversification and staying invested.
To put things in perspective: if you missed just the 10 best days of the market in 2025, your return would have been -12%, instead of +16%. Market timing is incredibly difficult, and emotional decisions often do more harm than good.
If you stayed invested through the volatility of 2025, congratulations—it wasn’t easy. And while 2026 will almost certainly bring new challenges, history shows that discipline and patience are rewarded over time.
Best wishes for a successful 2026. I look forward to revisiting these predictions at the end of the year and seeing if I can improve my batting average.
And remember—if you’re ready to build a clearer plan for retirement, visit retirewithryan.com, click Courses, then On Demand, and use code RETIRE99 to enroll in my Retirement Readiness course for $99.
Happy New Year, and take care.
Written by Ryan Morrissey
Founder & CEO of Morrissey Wealth Management
Host of the Retire with Ryan Podcast